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Poll: Hogan, Moran Lead Mayoral Race

If Jacksonville's mayoral election was held today, it looks like Republicans Mike Hogan and Audrey Moran would advance to a May run-off.   That's according a poll conducted by Dixie Strategies and sponsored the Jacksonville Observer.

The survey was taken on Thursday and Friday (March 17-18) and includes responses from 637 likely voters.  The poll's margin of error is 3.88%.

THE MAYOR'S RACE...

Mike Hogan

In the top race on the ballot, Mike Hogan leads Audrey Moran  by a slim margin of 28% to 27%.    Hogan is dominating among Republican voters, taking 45% to Moran's 18%, however, Moran is making up the difference by splitting Democrats evenly with Alvin Brown.

Audrey Moran

"There was a void in the moderate-to-liberal marketplace that Audrey Moran has managed to capitalize on.   The fact that she is the only female is also advantageous to her," said Brian Graham of Dixie Strategies.  "What I see from these numbers is that Hogan is a lock for a spot in the run-off and if I were Rick Mullaney, I'd be very worried right now."

The race for third place is also tight, as our survey shows Democrat Alvin Brown edging past Republican Rick Mullaney by a fraction of a percent.   Brown has 16.5% while Mullaney captures 16.2%.

A big question is whether the barrage of negative attacks that Mullaney has launched against Moran will be enough to shift voters and change the outcome.

"Things could sink in over the weekend and shake a few points loose," said Graham of the Mullaney assault.  "I'm not saying it can't be done, but it's tough."

Graham also points to the relatively low number of undecided voters in this race -- about 6% -- as more evidence in support of a Hogan and Moran run-off.

TAX COLLECTOR...

The race for Tax Collector, which includes 3 Republicans and no Democrats, still has a very high number of undecided voters.

Former legislator Dick Kravitz leads the field with 34% to City Councilman Michael Corrigan's 20% and 12% for Ryan Taylor.  Another 34% of voters have yet to make up their minds.

"Kravitz is looking very strong right now, most likely we'll see him in a run-off against Michael Corrigan," said Brian Graham.  "There may be some residual name recognition benefit for Ryan Taylor from [council candidate] David Taylor as well."

OTHER INTERESTING RESULTS...

Predicting the At-Large City Council races is extremely difficult, with large numbers of candidates and many undecided voters.

"I don't know if these candidates have been able to define themselves enough for voters to make an informed choice," said Brian Graham.

The highest profile of the contests is in Group 1, where all three candidates have faced significant personal issues.  Republican David Taylor looks headed to a run-off against Democrat Kimberly Daniels.  The Dixie Strategies-Jacksonville Observer survey shows Taylor leading with 34% to 30% for Daniels.  Independent Steve Burnett has the backing of 11% of voters.

"A one-on-one race with fewer contests on the ballot will give the voters more opportunities to scrutinize the remaining candidates," said Graham.  "That might not be helpful for Ms. Daniels."

In the Group 2 race, Democratic incumbent John Crescimbeni leads the pack with over 48% of the vote, just short of the 50% he would need to win an outright victory on Tuesday.   Tom Patton currently leads up the pack of three Republican challengers with 13%, ahead of Paul Martinez and Vince Serrano who are trailing with 11% and 7%, respectively.  If Crescimbeni fails to top 50% of the vote, a run-off will be held in May between the top vote getters.

About 80% of the undecided voters in that race are Republicans, many of whom are likely unfamiliar with the field of Republican candidates.

"He [Crescimbeni] has a party affiliation that enables him to capture the majority of Democrats," said Graham. "And then he's used his advertising to target Republican voters."

The other two at-large races are complete toss-ups.

In Group 4, Jim Robinson holds a narrow lead over Juan Diaz and Greg Anderson.  However, 44% of voters remain undecided in that race.

The numbers: Robinson 23%, Diaz 18% and Anderson trails with 16%.

"Anything could happen in that race," remarks Graham.

In Group 5, a crowded field of six candidates heavily splits the vote.

Independent Donald Foy, surprisingly, leads the pack with 16% of the vote..  An African-American and the only non-Republican on the ballot, he draws the vast majority of his support from Democrats.

In second place is Republican Robin Lumb, leading Sean Hall who many expected to be a lock for a spot in the eventual run-off.

The numbers: Foy 16%, Lumb 14%, Hall 11%, Rukab 9%, Tappouni 8% and Fred Engness is picking up 7%.

With 35% of voters yet to make a decision, Graham says that no outcome would surprise him.

"I have no idea what to say about this race, it's a toss-up in so many different ways," said Graham.  "It doesn't take much to fall from first to third place with so many candidates running.  But I expect this will be a very close one as I don't think anyone will blow anyone else out of the water among the undecideds."

We'll have more results from our poll, including complete numbers broken down by party registration and gender in the next 24 hours.  Plus, complete results from the races for Sheriff and Property Appraiser.

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NOTE TO MEDIA: YOU MUST IDENTIFY THIS POLL AS THE  "DIXIE STRATEGIES - JACKSONVILLE OBSERVER POLL" WHEN CITING NUMBERS PUBLICLY

12 Responses »

  1. Hopefully the voters in Jacksonville would not consider voting for a person to lead this city who has had 4 children, and still thinks abortion does not kill a baby.

    Audrey is a R.epublican I.n N.ame O.nly. period.

    Think about a recent RINO example in Florida, former governor Charlie Crist, or our economy under Pres. Obama. Opportunists sound great on the campaign trail but the consequences would be awful, not only culturally but fiscally. You have to stand on prnciple.

    • Amen, Lady Gator!

    • the position of Mayor has no influence on the topic of abortion!!! Get ur head outta ur conservative ass and vote according to the subjects that will be affected by this position.....hmmm, ECONOMY, JOBS!!!!

    • lets get this straight, the GOP has ran this town and state for many many years, LOOK where it has gotten us, I for one cannot afford to let this continue, conservatism is not the answer, it's Impossible to simply make CUTS and balance our fiscal woes, if we wanna keep our police n fireman on the streets , keep our libraries open, have parks to attend, streets we can drive on then at some point taxes will have to be raised, simple as that!!! And I for one rather elect a mayor who is upfront n honest about that fact, I'm a democrat, but I will be voting for Moran!

  2. Last time I checked, it was not in the mayor's duty to decide whether abortion was constitutional. Looking forward to electing someone who wil make smart economic choices to lead our city forward.

  3. Audrey Moran is the only candidate who will move Jacksonville forward. We need a mayor with progressive thinking. We don't need Hogan. He will put Jacksonville back into the caveman era. And ANY candidate who says they will not raise taxes is LIEING or just outright STUPID.

    • Progressive thinking? In other words...a bleeding heart liberal. No, we do not need this RINO as our Mayor. Wise up Jacksonville. Our "social experiment" in the White House isn't working out too well. We don't need that in Jacksonville as well.

  4. parisan politics has no place in local government. Audrey Moran is well positioned to be a highly successful mayor because she has reached out to all. She has campaigned like this not because it is her "strategy", but rather it's who she is. I am so hopeful she wins because she is the only candidate with a vision to move Jacksonville forward. When mayors Ed Austin and Jake god bold endorsed her that sent a clear message!! We are ready to progress again in a unified way!! The poll is just that though. A poll. However, it seems favorable for Audrey moran and better for jax!!

  5. I laugh when folks try to pin the blame on 'liberals,' We have been a drinking the conservative Kool-Aid since the 1990s. Republicans have run our city government AND our state government and still point the finger of blame at Democrats who have as much say in our government and politics as a pig at a barbecue. LOL!

  6. Hey Carlucci....how exactly does Audrey paying Jake Godbold $4,000 for his endorsement send a "clear message?" The only message it sends is that Audrey Moran is more of the same, good ol boy political system that has been running Jacksonville for years. She is an extreme liberal, in the mold of our "President" Barack Obama. She will increase property taxes, gas taxes, sales taxes, as well as creating a new downtown bureaucracy with taxing power. Audrey has never met a government program she doesn't like. She will drastically increase the size and scope of government, and will be a job killer. Audrey Moran is the absolute worst choice for Mayor!

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  1. OUR POLL: Rutherford, Overton Look Safe ‹ The Jacksonville Observer
  2. The Only Independent, Public Polling in This Election… | JaxDaily.com