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Turnout Could Make the Difference in Mayor’s Race; More Poll Results

Initial turnout projections for tomorrow's municipal elections were near 50%, according to Supervisor of Election Jerry Holland. Over the past few weeks, that target has fallen with limited interest being shown in absentee and early voting. Now, most experts are suggesting no more than 25% of voters will actually have cast a ballot by 7pm on Tuesday.

Who benefits in a low turnout situation?

The Dixie Strategies-Jacksonville Observer poll of city races suggests Mike Hogan and Rick Mullaney could benefit from the limited voter interest. With Audrey Moran relying on Democrats and moderates for much of her support, two groups that are far less reliable voters. Plus, the lower the turnout tomorrow, the more important absentees will be in determining a winner.

"Republicans have always been better at turning out absentee votes," says Brian Graham of Dixie Strategies.

"People who consider themselves conservatives tend toward Mullaney and Hogan, and those are the voters who tend to show up in a low turnout election. Audrey's support could be weaker, as moderate voters are less excitable," concludes Graham. "Those same facts would give Hogan an advantage in a run-off election against Moran."

The following are the full, final breakdowns from the poll conducted by Dixie Strategies...

- Broken down by party

- Broken down by gender

- Broken down by political orientation

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