Well, that was fun.

Back about six months or so ago, I announced that I had chosen so seek a seat on the Jacksonville City Council.  And I chose an enormous mountain to climb in the process… challenging a well-known incumbent in a county-wide race.

We now know how that turned out.  John Crescimbeni will serve another four years on the City Council as the Group 2 representative.  Not the outcome we were hoping for, but in this game, second place is really no different than last if the top finisher goes over that 50 percent threshold.  Say nothing about coming in third.

But it was an experience that I would not have missed for anything in the world. The positives outweigh the negatives by orders of magnitude.

What did I learn from my first foray into politics? Well, first of all, it’s a BIG county. Running a city-wide race from essentially a grass-roots level is a monumental undertaking, particularly when you have deadline work on your desk every day of the campaign. I was fond of saying on the campaign trail that it was a lot like running a mayor’s race without the big budget. And with three Republicans in the contest, resources were spread pretty thin. The Democrat incumbent did not have to compete among his party faithful for donations, and there was no one waiting on the sidelines to see who came out of the first election to make the runoff.

Speaking of runoffs, I didn’t talk to anyone, other than the incumbent, who wasn’t absolutely certain there would be one. The math for it makes sense in a four person race, but in this case, the conventional wisdom was … let’s face it … wrong.

When I’ve been asked what surprised me the most about running for office, I’d have to say it’s the lack of knowledge by the electorate about how our city government works. The question I was asked most often while campaigning was “what does ‘At-Large’ mean?” Other candidates told me the same thing. People really don’t understand how their city council is structured, or what it is that the council does. They get the concept of the district councilperson, but when it comes to the county-wide seats, not so much.

I learned that there are a lot of people out there who think like I do, and who have a vision for where they want the city to go. The business and community leaders with whom I met almost to a person see a great deal of opportunity here, with the right leadership. Many of them thought I would have been an asset in that regard, and that is a very humbling feeling.  Almost as humbling as the idea that about sixteen percent of those who voted said I was their top choice.  Again, no trophy for second place.

I met some really great people along the way, some of whom I hope will be friends for a long time.  Then there were those who made you want to wash your hands or take a shower every time you were in the same room with them.  I learned that people will say or do just about anything to win a city council race, which was not a direction I wanted to go.

I was also stunned by the apathy on the part of the nearly 70 percent of the registered voters who chose not to become informed and take part in this election.  But then, I’ve long been an advocate of being informed and voting. I said often on the campaign trail that the government closest to you is the one which can have the most direct effect on your quality of life, and here, that’s the Jacksonville city government… unless you live in one of the beaches communities or Baldwin.

I’m also glad that back when I was a kid, we were allowed to lose.  In real life, we keep score, and while no one wants to feel the disappointing sting of losing, it’s something for which everyone should be prepared.

So, it was go big or go home… and in this first campaign, I’m home.  I’m also now often asked what else I might consider, if having had a taste of life in the political spotlight if I will seek it again.  I won’t say no… because like so many things, it’s a promise that I can’t guarantee that I’d be able to keep.  But I did not seek the office to be a bigshot.  I ran because I felt like I could make a difference in moving Jacksonville forward.  To those who supported me, with their time, talents, treasure, and votes I offer a most sincere and humble “thank you.”   Seeking political office is not for everybody, particularly not the faint of heart, but I feel I’m a better person for having done so.  It was an experience I’ll never forget.

Tuesday night, the pendulum began to swing back, and in the U.S. House of Representatives, it swung back in a big way.

Pretty much everyone except perhaps soon-to-be-former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi saw the changeover coming in the House. As early as Tuesday afternoon, Speaker Pelosi was saying that she would continue on as the leader of the House. And she will … until January.

But even among some of the Republicans I talked to with at the GOP celebration at the Hyatt Tuesday night, it’s clear that while voters chose Republicans, it is in part because they were the “not Democrat” choice. The GOP has to lead, and give the electorate a reason to vote for them again in two years, and to perhaps make Barack Obama a one-term President.

In an election night speech, the likely Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner was frank. He said it was not a time for celebration, and that Republicans were being given an opportunity. But the GOP has a lot to prove, and it will not be time for the party of Lincoln to rest on it’s laurels. They’ll need to roll up their sleeves and show leadership.

That leadership will likely include moves to repeal at least portions of the Obama Health Care Bill, and permanent extension of the Bush Tax Cuts for all Americans. They’ll face opposition in that from the White House, and depending on how the last few races break, likely the Senate as well. Voters expressed their disappointment with the GOP in 2006 and 2008. In 2010, they’ve expressed their disappointment with the Democrats. Republicans have been handed an opportunity, and the need to be up to the challenge.

On the state level, Republicans have taken the offices of Attorney General, CFO, and Agriculture Commissioner, so no matter who is the Governor, they’ll have a Republican cabinet with which to work. The GOP has big majorities in both the state House and Senate, including a potential Senate presidency for John Thrasher at some point during the next four years. That would be a very good thing for NE Florida. So at the state level, it’s been a good night for Republicans as well. The Governor’s race, of course, is turning out to be a classic Florida nail biter. If the margin narrows to less than half of one percent, a recount is mandated. All those paper ballots may come out of storage, and the process could be lengthy.

And finally, Amendment 4 went down to a resounding defeat. Voters in Florida got the message about the disaster that would have been for Florida business and the economy. My best anecdote about Amendment 4 was from a Mayo Clinic official who told a group in a speech that, had it been part of the Florida Constitution, not only would Mayo have not only not considered Jacksonville, it would not have considered Florida. We dodged a real bullet with the defeat of Amendment 4.

So yes, a good night to be a Republican, both nationally and in Florida. For a last bit of good news, nearly half of Duval county residents, 48.16 percent unofficially, turned out to vote. Here’s hoping that enthusiasm for the process is sustainable through the local elections in the spring.

I had that chance on a recent Saturday.

The plant was open for tours as part of Docomomo US Tour Day, and I was among those invited to tour the building, and hear about some of things people have envisioned for its future.

The plant was built in 1923 by architect Albert Kahn for Ford, one of about 1000 Kahn designed for the automaker. Two Model T assembly lines ran in the building during its brief time as a manufacturing facility. Cars were only built there until 1932, when it was converted into a parts warehouse until it was closed in1968. It is currently being used as a pallet manufacturing facility, and for trailer storage.

The building is mostly structurally sound. We were told that a leaking water pipe is causing some erosion of the fill on which the plant is built. It is supported by about 8,000 pilings, and it obviously has a prime waterfront location. But any re-gentrification of the plant is likely years in the future.

In the part of the plant that is currently in use, the building looks worse than it probably is. There is another section, which were the offices and a showroom, which are in somewhat worse condition. In the showroom in particular, water has damaged an ornate ceiling.

The building still gives a glimpse of how people worked in the early 20th century. The plant has opening skylights that run much of the length of the building, which allowed natural light and ventilation into the plant. The use of natural light in the factory was an innovation at the time, and the mechanical actuators that open the panels look like they’re still waiting to be turned. A male-only workforce had restroom facilities in an open loft built above the production floor. The main production floor is raised about four feet above a channel that runs the length of the building which allowed rail cars which were rolled in to be unloaded at floor level.

Just walking through the place the possibilities are obvious. I heard a lot of comparisons to The Torpedo Factory in Old Town Alexandria in Virginia just across the Potomac from Washington, DC. There, an old WWII torpedo factory has been converted into artist’s studios, shops, and restaurants. The Ford plant has the same kind of potential, but will have some additional challenges because of its location in Tallyrand.

But the use most often mentioned for the facility is as a cruise terminal. There are two schools of thought on the cruise industry. While there are larger and larger ships being built, there are also smaller cruise ships, which can clear the Dames Point Bridge and could call on a terminal in downtown Jacksonville.

I felt it was a privilege to be able to see and photograph the plant. And while the plans that are being discussed for the property could be a real asset to downtown Jacksonville, the stumbling block is always going to be the money necessary to make it happen. The cruise terminal would, obviously, require the commitment of a cruise line to make downtown a port of call before such a use could be economically viable, and other ideas, such as an artist’s “mall” like The Torpedo Factory will require investors with deep pockets and the buy-in of civic and government leaders.

We should all hope that, when those factors fall into place, the structure its self is still standing and available to live up to its potential.

To see all the photos from my visit, click here.

Let’s call him Joe.

Joe had been a manager at a fast food restaurant, it doesn’t really matter which one. Long before the economy started to go south, Joe found himself at his doctor’s office getting bad news. He needed to reduce the stress in his life or it wasn’t going to last much longer. Joe turned in his notice with nothing to go to. Maybe not a stress reliever, but his choice.

Fast forward an undisclosed amount of time. Joe bought a hot dog cart, got a vendor’s license, and set up shop working the lunch trade in an area with a high concentration of offices and hotels. He now earns, he told me, nearly as much as he did when he was working for someone else. He sets his own hours, talks to people who are happy to see him, and has a sunny attitude that most of us would envy.

Joe is all about customer service. When I mentioned I enjoyed cheese on my hotdog, even though it wasn’t out on the table, he dug through his supplies until he found some shredded cheddar. No extra charge.

Joe has done what so many others have done, either out of necessity or by design. He is an entrepreneur, not waiting for the government to create a job for him. When the economy went sour, Joe was able to continue to sell hot dogs, as he offered something which people wanted, an inexpensive lunch, and there were still enough people streaming out of the office buildings at lunchtime to keep him going.

But it was his attitude which impressed me most. I met Joe at an event for which he had been hired to provide food for those attending, and he handed out hot dogs for a little over two hours. He always wore a big smile, and talked with the people who visited his cart in the friendliest manner possible.

Joe doesn’t show up in unemployment statistics, because he’s not unemployed. Whether he might be considered underemployed could be open to interpretation, though I imagine if you asked him, he’d say no.

So how is Joe a metaphor for the economy? He certainly represents what is best about America. Joe has made his own way in difficult times and has done reasonably well. He did not sit back and say “someone should do something.” Faced with adversity and challenge, he did what he could to make things better for himself. As we move towards economic recovery, it’s imperative that we don’t get in the way of the Joes among us who are facing their challenges head-on and not looking for a government bailout at any level.

Thanks, Joe, for helping bring some things into perspective.

On a somewhat related note, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research announced recently that the recession officially ended in June of 2009, over a year ago. At that point, the committee said the economy reached a “trough” … bottomed out if you will … and began an expansion. Any new recession, said the committee, would be a “new” recession.

The only place this seems to make any difference is in the statistics. If there is a double-dip recession, which many economists predict, it won’t go into the record books as an extended period of recession.

But jobs are still hard to come by. Cessna aircraft, as an example, recently announced the elimination of some 400 positions in Wichita. Unemployment in Florida is stubbornly stuck in the double digits.

Here on the ground, the recession will only be over when people feel confident about the state of the economy, and their own jobs.

And the question I’ve most often been asked as I’ve gone through this process is “why in the world would you want to do that?”

It’s a valid question, and one that I’m sure I’ll be answering in greater detail over the next several months. But for now, let me give you the 30-thousand foot view.

I honestly never actually imagined that I’d run for public office. I’ve made a career out of sitting across the table from men and women who had, and asking “what are you going to do about this?” Over the course of those years, I developed a deep respect for those who had the best interests of the city at heart, and who worked hard to represent their constituencies to the best of their ability.

Jacksonville has been my home for more than a decade and this is where I plan to spend the rest of my life. During my time here, I’ve become acutely aware of many of the city’s issues. As a member of the broadcast media, I always took a lot of pride in the opportunity I was given to do my part to help address those issues, but there is still a great deal of work to be done.

That’s why I have chosen to voluntarily move to the other side of the table… the one where people like me are going to be asking “what are you going to do about this?”

The key issues in this campaign are well known.  Job creation tops the agenda, and it’s an issue with which I have some fairly recent experience. Over the course of the last two years, both incomes in our household fell victim to the faltering economy, and while we are well on the road to recovery, I know that there are still far too many people who are struggling to find employment.

Education, of course, ties into employment, and too many of our students and schools are struggling as well. While education is largely the purview of the school board, the city has a huge stake in a well-educated workforce. All that is played out against a budget that will lag behind any actual recovery simply because of its structure. Getting the city’s fiscal house in order will be another theme that will be discussed at length over the next seven months.

I’ve been asked “why run now, when there are so many difficult choices to be made?” My response is “what better time to try to make a difference.”

I am a political newcomer, at least on this side of the table. Maybe that’s what makes this a little more daunting for me, because I know what’s coming. I like to think I’ve doled it out pretty well over the past 20 or so years, but I have endeavored at all times to be fair. That is how I hope to approach my time on the City Council… with an open mind and a willingness to hear all sides of an issue.

There will be plenty of time for campaign speeches and discussions of policy. That’s not the purpose of this article or this announcement.

I will be taking a hiatus from The Jacksonville Observer Radio Show in order to focus my energy on this campaign.  And of course, I do still have to work for a living.  But I also feel called to offer what I can to public service, to give something back to the community in which, out of all the places I’ve been, I’ve chosen to put down roots and call home.

So, I suppose I should close by saying “I’m Tom Patton… and I approved this message.”

Clapboard Creek, for those who might not be familiar with it, lies just east of the Dames Point Bridge. A low fixed bridge carries Heckscher Drive across the entrance of the creek, which is part of the Timucuan Preserve. Traveling just north of the bridge, and beyond the small marina, is like stepping several hundred years back in time. The marsh is undisturbed, and there were several snowy egrets fishing in the shallows. My boat was the noisiest thing in the creek until a couple of others came downstream to the bridge.

Crab pot buoys did a fair job of marking the channel, but I was glad to have a charting GPS and sounder. The kayaker needed no such help, paddling quietly along the creek’s eastern shore.

So here is one of thousands of spots where the river shows her ancient side, largely undisturbed.

Back out in the main river, watercraft ranging from small skiffs to oceangoing freighters share the river, it would seem largely without incident.  The river represents commerce, still part of a transportation system that moves enormous quantities of goods around the planet. It’s well accepted that the port here will, for the foreseeable future, be a linchpin to the region’s economy.

The port already supports some 65,000 jobs in the region, and is estimated to bring thousands more as more and bigger ships call on Jacksonville as the economy (hopefully) improves. That growth is likely to be slower now than might have been anticipated two or three years ago, but long term, if the port is properly managed and developed, and the infrastructure improvements are made, the investment should pay off in a better overall economy for the region.

Everywhere, there were boats pulled out of the main channel with lines in the water. With conditions offshore too rough for all the but most intrepid fishermen, the river, the creeks, and the Intracoastal Waterway were all dotted with boats with anglers seeing what was biting. On a rising tide, there were boats rafted together and pulled up on sandy shores along the ICW, families and friends getting together to fish and swim and enjoy the river and its tributaries.

But a boat isn’t necessary to access the river.

All along the road leading to Mayport, and further east on the north bank of the river, cars were parked on or very near the sand, and people were swimming and fishing and just enjoying what is one of our most precious natural resources. This is one of the reasons a clean and healthy river is so important. We want a river that can support a healthy fish population, and that people are not concerned about wading into the water to cool off on a 90 degree July day.

Something that always catches my eye when I venture out into the Atlantic Ocean is the influence of the river water on the ocean.  There is always a very clear line of demarcation where the silt-and-tannin-laden water from the St. Johns gives way to the cleaner water of the Atlantic. It is a very clear representation of exactly how much is carried by the river to the sea. And on this day, on a rising tide, you could watch the water change color at the mouth of the river as the cleaner ocean water moved inshore up the river.

Sometimes you just have to see it to be able to really appreciate it.

I know it’s not a controversial position to say the St. Johns River needs protection. I’ve been hearing it since I came to Jacksonville a decade ago, and while it is surely cleaner and healthier than it was back in the middle part of the last century, the algae blooms, fish kills, and trash along the river’s banks tell us there is a long way to go. I’ve had occasion to fly over portions of the middle section of the river near Green Cove Springs on several occasions already this summer, and the algae blooms are particularly evident from the air.

The river is one of Jacksonville’s biggest selling points. It offers commerce and recreation, not to mention spectacular views. But if we’re not good stewards of this resource, it can quickly shift from asset to liability.

We’ve all heard stories about the Cuyahoga river in Cleveland catching fire in the 1960’s, and while that is an extreme, it’s not something that would have been included on a Chamber of Commerce brochure, either. The little things we can all do can add up to a lot when it comes to our river. If you don’t think they’re worth doing, find a way to spend a couple of hours getting acquainted with the water. That’s pretty much all it will take to change your mind.

The budget calls for the elimination of 40 vacant positions, reduces part-time and overtime funding, and maybe most interestingly, does not renew contracts for state and federal lobbyists.

On the revenue side is where it gets sticky. The Mayor’s budget follows an increase in garbage fees with another 9 percent increase in the property tax millage rate. With the average price of a home in Jacksonville about $142,000 these days, it boils down to less than $100 per year, but there are a lot of homeowners who are struggling to pay their taxes now, and that $100 might really make a difference. That’s after a 9 percent increase last year.

The cuts that were not made in the Mayor’s budget include things like the wholesale closing of libraries and the elimination of the Fourth of July fireworks. It had been suggested that the city turn off half its street lights to save money. But libraries which had hours cut earlier this year will continue to operate on the reduced schedule. All told, the cuts total about $40 of the $60 million gap.

There have been significant concessions made by both the firefighters union and the Jacksonville Supervisors Association, both in pay cuts and benefit contributions. Those bargaining bodies are to be commended for making a painful decision which will certainly help keep the budget in balance, and which the mayor says could serve as a model nationwide for municipalities facing similar situations. And there are a lot of them.

Mayor Peyton said in his budget address Wednesday that, for the first time since consolidation, the city’s $955 million dollar budget represents total spending that is less than the previous year.

The Mayor can only propose a budget. Now it is up to the City Council to go through it with a fine tooth comb, and see if the cuts are appropriate, which certainly needs to be done before any revenue increase is warranted. There are five former council presidents on the finance committee. That’s a lot of firepower, and current council president Jack Webb has said nothing is on or off the table. He’s pledged to actually read the budget before deciding on any tax increase.

That should not be undertaken lightly, and the current council certainly will not do so. They are not alone in facing these challenges. Municipalities nationwide are faced with falling property values that are eroding their tax bases, and increasing demands on services. Jacksonville is no exception, and the fact of a struggling worldwide economy does not seem to alleviate the desire for government services. Mayor Peyton says his proposed millage rate for the coming year of 10.12 mils, or $10.12 for every $1,000 of assessed value, after homestead exemptions and other deductions, is “revenue neutral.” It’s what the Mayor says is needed to maintain the level of services currently offered by the city.

The finance committee and the full city council needs to be judicious in looking for additional savings. We’ve been hearing for some time that the budget has been cut “to the bone”, but the projections made by the Mayor in his budget address seem to indicated that the current budget is but the tip of the iceberg, and if there are not fundamental changes primarily in employee pensions it may not be too far in the future that we are pining for the days of 9 percent tax increases. It would seem on its face that neither is sustainable for the long term. So along with the fundamental changes that are likely necessary to put the city’s financial house in order, it is incumbent on the legislators to be sure it has found and eliminated as many redundancies as possible, and that the government is running, as they say in the aviation business, at peak lean instead of full rich. All the while cognizant of the fact that every “redundancy” is also a person, and that person very likely doesn’t feel they are redundant.

That’s the Sophie’s Choice that is faced. None of the options are particularly good. It is never easy, or pleasant, to put a human face on the numbers and ask a person with bills and taxes to pay to make do with less, or nothing at all. But neither is it possible to continue to ask taxpayers, predominantly home and business owners, to continue to dip into a well that is on the verge of running dry. So, if we are to continue to cut city government, there needs to be a business climate that creates jobs so that those displaced out of civil service have somewhere to go. Because an unemployed person is far more likely to default on a mortgage, affecting the property taxes base, buys only essentials, which affects sales taxes, or leaves for greener pastures.

Just ask Detroit.

Even with no hurricane activity in the state since 2005, insurance companies are still claiming that they’re losing money and a major storm making landfall in Florida could be devastating. Not to mention that the State of Florida holds more homeowners insurance than any other policy writer … and we all know how much money the state has at the moment.

But hurricane prediction is an inexact science. While meteorologists have gotten much better at predicting a storm’s track with greater accuracy, intensity continues to be difficult to determine or predict. NASA recently announced the funding of a study that will fly Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV’s) for as many as 30 hours at a time over developing and fully developed storms during the 2012-2014 season specifically to study the development of intensity. At some point they’ll eventually determine what causes a category 2 storm to jump to category 4 or 5 intensity with very little warning, and then be able to give us a little warning. However all that is still years in the future.

So, as the NWS calls for as many as 23 named storms between now and November 30th, with as many as 14 becoming hurricanes and up to 7 crossing that Category 3 “Major Hurricane” threshold, the time to consider what to do is now.

Living as I do on what amounts to a barrier island, I tend to take such things seriously. The hurricane kit is pretty sparse right now, but over the next few weeks, we’ll start buying things like an extra gallon of water or two at the grocery store, just to tuck away in the garage. It doesn’t take too many of those before you’ve got an ample water supply laid in to get you through a storm, and you don’t have to fight for the last flat of over-priced bottled water when the store shelves are picked clean after a storm is forecast. Same with batteries. Grabbing a big package of batteries when you’re already at the warehouse store of your choice doesn’t add a lot to your bill, and then the batteries are already there should the lights go out. Soups and other canned goods the same thing, and might as well check to be sure the Coleman stove is operating. I think if there is one thing my hurricane kit is usually lacking, it’s pre-ground coffee and a percolator. I’ll have to fix that this year. I know pre-ground coffee usually loses its flavor over time, but it’d certainly be better than no coffee at all.

We have Kevlar shutters for the house. Lightweight, flexible, rated to Miami-Dade standards, and easy to put up for the entire house in about an hour.

My homeowner’s and flood insurance are paid up and current. If you live on a barrier island, and don’t have federal flood insurance, you’re just asking for problems. I’m sure you’re aware that once a storm is in the offing, there’s no getting insurance.

Tropical storms are simply a fact of life where we live. We’re very lucky in that the steering currents, most notably the Bermuda High, help curve storms away from the First Coast, though that’s certainly no guarantee that something won’t come straight in off the ocean, like Dora in 1964, or over the peninsula from the Gulf like Charlie back in 2004. But like earthquakes or wildfires in California, or tornadoes in the Midwest, they’re a function of where we live, and we get a lot more warning. I lived nearly 25 years in the Midwest, and never saw a tornado, though I saw a lot of tornado damage. I lived in California for a year, and experienced one minor temblor. I was driving in the car up PCH to work at the time, and the only reason I knew what had happened was because the newscaster on the radio stopped in mid sentence, paused, and said “we’ve just had an earthquake.” I’ve come close to three hurricanes. Gloria in 1985, Fran in 1996, and Charlie in 2004.

All that to say I hope I can live a long time in Florida and never experience the full brunt of a hurricane, even a Category 1 storm which is (theoretically) not enough to chase me from my house east of the Intercoastal Waterway. But knowing it could happen is enough to make me plan for its eventuality. Because really, if there is no storm, the worst I’ve done is make a modest investment in a few gallons of water, some canned food, and batteries which I probably needed anyway.

Not such a bad deal. Here’s to the forecasters being wrong, and a quiet season for everyone.

I have a very simple suggestion for avoiding getting a ticket from a red-light camera. It will work every time.

Don’t run the light.

This seems to be great sport here more than any place I’ve lived, or maybe I just notice it more. Particularly on a protected turn at times of heavy traffic. The light will turn green for my lane of traffic ostensibly meaning that I can proceed through the intersection, but for three … four … five … sometimes as many as six cars that will continue to use the turn lane after the light has turned red. And you know, because of the way lights are timed, that the arrow turned red 3-4 seconds before giving the green light to the opposing lanes, because traffic planners know people are going to run the light.

They’ve tried to make it safer, and yet, either we have one of the highest concentrations of colorblind drivers in the nation, or people just don’t care.

I know how frustrating it is to have sat in a long line of traffic only to be the first car in line to wait for another green arrow. But in reality, it’s only two minutes at the most. 120 seconds. By running the light, at least in that instance, what you’re saying to the people who have to wait for you is “my time is more valuable then yours.” Perhaps true, but not likely.

But far more dangerous is the driver who, when he or she sees the light turn yellow, hits the accelerator rather than the brake. We’ve all done this. It’s very tempting to try to judge whether you can make it through on the yellow rather than stop for the red. But seriously, I’ve seen drivers accelerate to 50-60 miles an hour on Atlantic and Beach Boulevards and blast through a light that has long-since turned red. And maybe I feel so strongly about it because I came within a second or two of being killed by just such a driver on 3rd street at the beach.

I was waiting to cross 3rd at Florida on my bicycle going towards the beach. We get around a lot on bicycles at the beach, so drivers should be aware of them. There was a pickup truck beside me to my left. Our light turned green to cross 3rd street, and both the truck and I started into the intersection. The only thing that saved me was that I saw the truck stop short. A large, black SUV blasted through the light doing about 50 traveling south on 3rd street. And yes, I’d looked, but the SUV was so far back when the light turned green for me it didn’t even occur to me that it wouldn’t be stopping. With no policeman in the area, the driver of the SUV continued blithely along 3rd street either not knowing or caring that he had come within a breath of potentially killing two people. Had the driver t-boned the truck, it would have been pushed into me. If I hadn’t stopped when I saw the truck stop, I’d have borne the full brunt of the 4,000 pound SUV. My plastic helmet wasn’t going to be of much use in such an instance.

So yes, I have mixed feelings about red light cameras. I agree that there are potential issues concerning who was driving a vehicle when the violation was committed, and there’s that whole “innocent until proven guilty” thing as well. I also understand that a red-light camera is something of a robo-cop, and does not allow you to face your accuser in a court of law should you decide to challenge the ticket. It’s impersonal. But (and I know I’m pretty much whistling in the wind here), if you don’t want to get a ticket for running a red light, don’t run the light. To those who say it’s just a scheme to add revenue to the city coffers … beat them at their own game and … don’t run the light. Meanwhile, be careful to whom you loan your car.

Other drivers, cyclists, and pedestrians will thank you.

There is also a difference of opinion about whether the oil is dangerously close to what is called the “loop current,” a fast-moving flow that loops up into the gulf before sweeping down towards the Florida Keys, through the Straits of Florida and joins the Gulf Stream.

The latest (Sunday night) situation report from the State of Florida EOC indicates that:

“According to the NOAA oil plume model, the oil spill is 70 miles southwest of Pensacola, 165 miles from Port St. Joe, 275 miles from St. Petersburg, and 20 miles from the Loop Current.”

“Direct oil impacts are not expected across the Florida coastline through at least the next 72 hours. Shower and thunderstorm activity in the impact area Sunday and Monday may hamper deepwater operations across the northern-central gulf. Rain should end by sunrise Tuesday.”

Governor Charlie Crist has issued declared a state of emergency in 19 counties.

The Commandant of the Coast Guard said in a news conference Friday that Florida faces “no imminent threat” from the spreading slick, and if there is a threat, it is to the panhandle. But with the oil reportedly only 20 miles from the loop current, it would appear that that assessment will change. A simple shift of the wind could push oil into the loop current, and a big portion of the Florida economy is at risk.

I spoke over the weekend to a very conservative individual who works in the Scuba industry, selling gear to dive shops who re-sell it at retail, or use it as rental equipment. An avid fisherman and diver, he’s probably as sensitive to the health of coral reefs as anyone. He said, and I agree, that if the oil gets into the loop current, it could deal a devastating blow to the Florida economy.

Coral reefs are fragile, and the animals that create them are not capable of surviving in an oily environment. Coral reefs draw small fish which draw big fish. They also draw divers by the thousands who explore, photograph, spearfish, and spend money. Recreational fishermen, too, spend hundreds of dollars each per day for the privilege of chasing the fish that are drawn to the reefs. Tourism, and in large part recreational diving and fishing, are one of the stringers that hold up the Florida economy, and with few exceptions, the people who run the dive shops and the fishing boats and bait stores and marinas are small business owners who rely on a steady stream of tourists for their survival. If the reefs are damaged and the fish are gone, many of those small businesses will not survive.

As the loop current comes around through the keys and joins the gulf stream, the oil could be transported within a mile of the beaches of south Florida: South Beach, Miami Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Pompano. All are near enough to the Gulf Stream to be affected directly by the oil. By the time the Gulf Stream comes this far north, it’s far enough offshore that we might not see the oil sheen on the water, but it’s a pretty fair bet that we’ll have tar balls washing up on our beaches. Not devastating, but not pretty either.

The world runs on oil, and that’s likely going to be the case for the foreseeable future. Petroleum touches nearly everything on which modern conveniences depend, so it’s unlikely that the search for oil is going to wind down, nor should it. One major catastrophe like this is one too many, but oil rigs like Deepwater Horizon pump hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil from the Gulf of Mexico every day. BP needed a much better contingency plan, to be sure, but by all accounts there were safety procedures and equipment in place that were intended to prevent this kind of catastrophe.

It’s a very difficult position in which to be. We need oil, but we need to find a way to stave off the environmental and potential economic disasters that can stem from this kind of an accident, and increased government regulations are rarely the answer. The path BP takes in addressing the aftermath of this spill, and it will be a long process, will be critical to the response of the U.S. government. In the meantime, Florida small businesses that rely on tourism, the health of the coral reefs and ocean ecosystem will be warily watching the loop current, as the spill, like ash from an Icelandic volcano, impacts people and economies far from its point of origin.